SINGAPORE – Fiery speeches and calls for change galvanised crowds at election rallies during the hustings, with opposition parties and their supporters eager for a breakthrough in the 2025 General Election.But as rain fell in the pre-dawn hours after Polling Day on May 3, those flames were dampened by a swing in votes to the PAP.The ruling party won 87 out of 97 parliamentary seats, and increased its popular vote share to 65.57 per cent. On the opposition front, the WP retained its 10 seats and gained two Non-Constituency MP (NCMP) seats. The party’s vote share also held steady at 50.04 per cent, just shy of the 50.49 per cent it garnered in 2020.Other opposition parties struggled to gain traction – their popular vote share ranged from 1.19 per cent to 36.25 per cent.The PSP lost in all six constituencies it contested, including West Coast-Jurong West GRC, where it narrowly lost in the 2020 election and in so doing, secured two NCMP seats.This means the PSP will no longer have a parliamentary presence – an outcome that appeared to have stunned the party, which cancelled its post-results press conference.Over at MOE (Evans) Stadium where Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) supporters were gathered, the party extended its 28-year wait to return to Parliament as secretary-general Chee Soon Juan was narrowly pipped to an NCMP seat – by less than 1 percentage point. As Dr Chee’s head hung heavy, over his shoulder, volunteers quietly deflated a giant red balloon that had been a jubilant feature at the party’s night rallies during the campaign period. For four opposition parties – the National Solidarity Party (NSP), People’s Power Party (PPP), People’s Alliance for Reform (PAR) and Singapore United Party (SUP) – the sting of defeat cut deeper with financial losses. All candidates from NSP, PPP and SUP and two from PAR each lost their $13,500 deposit for not garnering at least 12.5 per cent of the votes contested. The total damage was $364,500.Analysts said that with Singapore gradually moving towards a two-party system with the PAP and WP, the road ahead is increasingly challenging for smaller players striving for a slice of the electoral pie. In the days after May 3, there was much anguish, tears, and soul-searching by various opposition parties as they grappled with their losses. PPP chief Goh Meng Seng was dispirited. Asked what’s next for him, he told The Straits Times: “I don’t think I have the desire any more. The fire is not there any more. “Good luck to Singapore, there’s nothing else we can say.” Mr Goh, who sold his property to fund his party’s campaign, said: “For now, I have no plans at all until I can earn enough money.”Singapore People’s Party’s (SPP) secretary-general Steve Chia even mulled over deregistering the party after it garnered 24.79 per cent of the votes in Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC and 22.47 in Potong Pasir SMC.He said: “The result is very bleak. The future is PAP versus WP. We can only contest where WP chooses not to go, scraping the leftovers.” Why Singapore voted the way it didThe disparity in vote share among the various opposition parties has demonstrated that Singaporeans are becoming a more sophisticated and discerning electorate, said analysts. IPS Social Lab adjunct principal research fellow and academic adviser Tan Ern Ser said it is clear that the WP has consolidated its position and distinguished itself from the rest of the opposition parties. Political analyst Loke Hoe Yeong said the WP has benefited from a form of incumbency effect. “Voters have come to recognise it as the most credible opposition party in Singapore, going by their performance in Parliament, and in how the town councils they run now score as well as PAP-run ones,” said Mr Loke. Former PAP MP Inderjit Singh said the calibre of the WP’s candidates, which were “of the same or better quality as PAP in some cases”, have made a difference. With Singapore’s democracy maturing, voters know which parties are serious and therefore deserve their support, he added. Mr Singh said he was surprised that the SDP and PSP had scored lower than they did in the 2020 General Election.A racist slur uttered by one of the SDP’s candidates during the campaigning period could have affected the party overall, said Mr Singh.Another reason could be that the PAP’s argument that voter support for the opposition could result in the loss of key ministers worked. In West Coast-Jurong West GRC, the PSP was up against a team led by National Development Minister Desmond Lee, who was identified as a key minister.Mr Singh posited that the PSP had garnered the votes it did in 2020 due to the branding of founder and former PAP veteran Tan Cheng Bock.“Among the young voters in GE2025, (Dr Tan) is not really known. PSP is also not well recognised by the heartland voters, and may be more known by the more informed ones who are active on social media,” he said. Associate Professor Eugene Tan, a political analyst and SMU law don, said that while the PSP may have emphasised the parliamentary performance of its two NCMPs – in particular leader Leong Mun Wai – their operating style “which generated more heat than light” may not have won them more support. Dr Tan Cheng Bock, who is 85, has declared that the 2025 election would be his last outing. The PSP’s hiatus from the new term of Parliament may well be a “blessing in disguise” as the party regroups and charts a future without its founder, said Prof Tan. But even as the WP has pulled away from the other opposition parties, analysts said these parties should not be written off.Independent political observer Felix Tan said he would not discount the support that the SDP, PSP and even Red Dot United (RDU) have garnered.“These other parties still have a role to play, especially when it makes every election something that the PAP would have to work hard to earn,” said Dr Felix Tan.Pointing to Dr Chee’s performance in Sembawang West SMC where he garnered 46.81 per cent of the vote, Dr Alan Chong from NTU attributed the opposition veteran’s performance to his years of campaigning and building his political profile. “All these years of patient visibility and consistency in voicing opposition in government policy has paid off. So when Dr Chee stands in any constituency, there is some degree of name and brand recognition,” said Dr Chong, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.Unlike parties like the PAP and WP which can conduct talent recruitment and party renewal through inviting aspirants to take part in grassroots activities, other opposition parties without elected MPs have to take a different path to build their candidates’ credibility and attract talent, Dr Chong said. This means parties should put candidates up for elections, even if it means losing some contests. “Then they can become known thereafter as having actually experienced some degree of hustings, public speaking and meeting residents. It’s a different way to burnish one’s credentials,” he added.For smaller parties to be relevant and find a space for themselves in Singapore’s political system, they would have to walk the ground between elections, and meaningfully weigh in on issues of the day, said analysts. Groundwork and retail politics are essential, said former SPP chairman Jose Raymond, who is the managing director of a strategy and communications firm.Mr Jose pointed to the results of Bukit Panjang SMC as a case study for how dedicated groundwork led to a swing of over 7 percentage points towards incumbent MP Liang Eng Hwa. In 2020, the ward saw a nail-biting race with SDP chairman Paul Tambyah, with Mr Liang prevailing with 53.73 per cent of the vote. Both candidates were new to the constituency then. But in the past five years, Mr Liang had rolled out popular initiatives like $1 deals to help residents cope with cost-of-living pressures, and stepped up efforts to engage residents. “He’s on the ground and that matters, because people then began to recognise him and shifted towards him. Political parties that don’t do this – the battle is theirs to lose,” said Mr Jose. Fading appeal of ‘pie in the sky’ proposalsSuccession planning is also critical for opposition parties to remain viable. Associate Professor Walter Theseira of the Singapore University of Social Sciences highlighted the SDP and PSP, which both face similar issues of having an ageing core leadership and no clear pathway for renewal. “They face a huge challenge in renewal because with the performance gap between the WP and everyone else, it’s not surprising that high-quality candidates would prefer to join the WP unless their philosophies are much more strongly aligned with the SDP and PSP,” said Prof Theseira. He said the PSP is in a worse situation than the SDP, as the latter has developed a consistent policy platform that is left of centre and coherent politically. “Who is the next generation of the PSP, and what policies or political differentiation will they seek? I don’t think the voters know that,” said Prof Theseira. Adding to the renewal woes for smaller opposition parties is the increased difficulty of attracting strong candidates, given competition from the WP. In addition, the robust performance of independent candidates this election might inspire more to strike out on their own in single-member constituencies. “There would certainly be little point to them joining a marginal party instead of going it alone, if their desire is more to have a platform and give voters a choice, rather than actually get elected,” said Prof Theseira. He added: “Personally, I don’t see any realistic hope for smaller parties to attract high-quality candidates unless they have a particular distinct policy differentiation.”Some key policy proposals put forth by opposition parties this election include reversing the goods and services tax hike, implementing a universal minimum wage and making housing more affordable by removing land costs.Analysts said the election results suggest the electorate did not view such alternative policies as feasible, and that they recognise the need to be prudent, think long-term and consider trade-offs.SMU’s Prof Tan said voters want viable alternative suggestions that are sustainable fiscally.“Voters don’t want to be infantalised by pie in the sky policy proposals, and expect parties and candidates to show that the sums will add up,” said Prof Tan. Given the magnitude of the task ahead, some analysts predict that some of the smallest opposition parties may fade away. Parties like the SUP, SPP, Singapore Democratic Alliance (SDA) and PPP would need to re-strategise and reassess the value they have to add in Singapore’s political landscape, said Dr Felix Tan. Prof Theseira said the smallest parties have their own motivations, which are highly personal and specific to party leaders and their cadres. “Without a radical rethinking of these motivations, I do not believe there will be any change, and there is no need to dispense any advice as their personal motivations are stronger than anything else, as shown by their persistence in the face of repeated poor showings,” he added. Fresh reckoning, new resolve While it is still early days post-election, the forced reflection in some quarters suggests that the dismal results could be the jolt needed to push the opposition towards its next stage of maturity.A detailed post-mortem is still under way for the PSP, but its leader, Mr Leong, told ST the party would take a hard look at its gaps in ground outreach, media and policy work.“In the past days, the party leadership has humbly reflected and acknowledged many learning points from this GE,” he said. The tweaks his party made from its first electoral outing in 2020 – such as concentrating the fights on fewer constituencies and crafting a manifesto that addresses real issues Singaporeans face – were not enough, Mr Leong added.Parties such as the PSP, SDP, RDU, SDA and PAR are regrouping to consider their game plans for the next election. SUP declined comment when approached, and NSP did not respond to repeated attempts to reach them. SDA chairman Desmond Lim took his party’s near 9 percentage point improvement in Pasir Ris-Changi GRC to 32.34 per cent of the vote as an “encouraging endorsement”.Mr Lim, who had earlier spoken of retirement, said he will stay on as party leader to lead it through the next phase, which includes a rebranding of the alliance. He will go back to the drawing board to focus on boosting the SDA’s social media outreach to engage younger voters and recruiting candidates earlier to build stronger community ties. His youngest candidate this round, 32-year-old Chia Yun Kai, joined the SDA just days before Nomination Day.On the policy front, he is keen to place greater focus on the themes of transparency and accountability, he said, noting that voters respond better to “clear, relatable policies” on key issues.Mr Lim brushed off talk of smaller parties’ growing irrelevance. Making the point that voters see “value in diversity” even if their support across opposition parties varies, he said: “Despite challenges, smaller parties remain crucial for representation.”Still, party renewal might prove to be a challenge. Mr Chia, a restaurant owner, separately told ST that he intends to leave SDA once his party, named Most Valuable Party (MVP), is formally registered.Over at RDU, its secretary-general Ravi Philemon plans to engage residents of the four constituencies the party contested in. He said he is working on a series of programmes to take the party forward into its third electoral run in 2030.“The welcome we received during campaigning, our vote share, and the many heartfelt messages of condolence and support we received after results night, have renewed our commitment to stay with these constituencies,” he said. Mr Philemon chose to see the RDU’s 23.35 per cent popular vote share in a positive light. “Our vote share indicates that RDU remains recognised as a small but formidable force that punches above its weight,” he said.PAR secretary-general Lim Tean said the party, which contested 13 seats this round, will take the next five years to build up its numbers and “come back stronger” as it is confident that its core principles and policies are sound. “We will work the ground relentlessly. We will not abandon any of the constituencies we contested in, and we intend to move into new areas,” he added. SDP believes its “northern strategy” – where it contested Sembawang GRC and Sembawang West SMC while giving up Holland-Bukit Timah GRC – averted bigger losses, despite the party incurring a dent to its popular vote share, which fell from 37.04 per cent in 2020 to 30.89 per cent.While it has not reviewed its campaign in full, SDP said it will not stop touching base with residents through ground engagements and initiatives. But while it could paint only a vague outline of its future strategy – that this will “take shape in line with developments” – SDP said Singapore needs electoral reform. Its suggestions include the convening of an independent electoral commission that would do the work of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee.Some parties struck a more pessimistic tone about their future. SPP’s Mr Chia said: “I really don’t know the answers. Singaporeans complain and say they want opposition but when it comes time to cast their ballot paper, they choose familiarity over uncertainty.”He also said the results showed that voters with moderate views here are “very, very conservative”, and that the hard-core opposition voters probably constitute only about 18 per cent.He would not comment on SPP’s next steps, saying no such discussion had happened yet.Asked if SPP had tried ways to target new voters and candidates this time round, he noted that the party had done it all.“It is not easy to get candidates,” he said. “Nobody qualified is queueing up to join or sign up to contest under SPP’s banner. I have advertised heavily, and reached out on social media too. But basically there is no traction.”Asked what the future holds for PPP and the opposition in Singapore, Mr Goh said: “I will let the youngsters and new members and next generation of candidates decide.” “The politics of fear by the PAP has been very successfully applied, and Singaporeans will go for only big brand-name parties without actually looking closely at the policies they are proposing,” he added.“The electorate is more emotional than rational, and we will respect how people feel,” Mr Goh said. PAR’s Mr Lim said it is silly to suggest that smaller parties dissolve. “The PSP and SDP showed they were able to contest only two GRCs each at most. The WP, five GRCs,” he noted.If it were left only to these three parties, “at least eight GRCs would go uncontested”, he said. “That is not what Singaporeans want. Singaporeans want to have the chance to vote.”Mr Lim also argued that PAR is already a product of opposition consolidation. PAR’s main weakness, as he sees it, is that it is a new entity with barely two years behind it. “Our constituent parties such as (Peoples Voice) and (Reform Party), which were far better known, gave up their separate identities to fight under a single banner. The electorate did not have time to know PAR well enough,” he said.By the time the next election rolls along, PAR “will be a well known entity in Singapore”, he believes. Prof Theseira posits that the future of Singapore’s opposition landscape is increasingly defined by a “new normal” where WP emerges as the primary opposition force, while other parties have to strive to gain mindshare by representing views not put forth by the WP. This reflects a political environment where PAP retains government control but accommodates more diverse voices in Parliament. The central issue is no longer whether opposition voices should exist, but how influential they can be, how they gain legitimacy, and how they are represented, he said.While the PAP favours institutionalised plurality through the Nominated MP and NCMP schemes, the opposition would argue that only elected MPs offer genuine democratic legitimacy.“The path forward depends on which view resonates more with voters,” said Prof Theseira. Join ST’s WhatsApp Channel and get the latest news and must-reads.